Everton appeal fully expected to cut points deduction a long way down – finance expert
Everton are likely to get their 10-point deduction halved when the verdict on their appeal is announced, according to Dr Rob Wilson.
The Sheffield Hallam University sports finance expert told i News (12 February) that the punishment could be brought down to as little as four points, since the original sanction “harsh” and sets a “really big precedent” for a relatively small breach.
Wilson doesn’t expect the Toffees to escape with just a fine because he believes there is an argument that there has been some sporting advantage gleaned from the overspend, but feels the size of the deduction will be reduced thanks to the fact it will have a clear knock-on effect on the very issue it is supposed to deal with.
He said: “I fully expect the points deduction to be halved on appeal. I think they will be looking at a four to six point deduction. Principally, this is because it sets a really big precedent. £24.5m or so [over the limit] over three years is not huge.
“If you go in really hard with 10 points, that’s the sort of deduction that will make or break seasons and can have a material impact on finishing positions and ongoing revenue. I think it’ll be reduced. A points deduction is right, but a 10-point deduction is harsh.
“Aside from Everton’s current sporting performance, when you look back at the period to which the charge relates, they were actually doing pretty well. Carlo Ancelotti was manager, they had James Rodriguez, they went eight games unbeaten at the start of the 2019-20 season.
“It’s not like they haven’t generated sporting success through the breaches. One might argue that they also survived relegation last season as a result of some of that overspending.”
Everton could see equivalent of two wins handed back on appeal
The idea that any sporting advantage could have lingered as far as last season’s relegation battle is surely debatable given the players that were sold compared to those that came in, or the lack-thereof, over recent transfer windows.
But if Wilson’s prediction is right it would hand Everton a big boost in terms of the latest battle against the drop, as it would likely see them jump three or four spots up the Premier League table straight away.
And given it would also set a precedent for the outcome of the second hearing it should cap the threat of another points deduction at something relatively manageable.
Nobody at Everton will be able to get ahead of themselves as they clearly didn’t expect to end up in this position at any step along the process so the possibility always remains open that the outcome will be unexpectedly rough.
Wilson doesn’t expect the punishment to get worse off the back of the appeal, but if it stayed at 10 points and a second deduction landed by the summer it would leave the Toffees in trouble, barring a return to the excellent form seen in early December.
Sean Dyche could badly use Everton points being returned.
Sean Dyche and the players are still fighting but results have dipped significantly since then, with the mental fatigue perhaps inevitable after three wins and a draw were taken away without a ball being kicked.
