Let’s get it out of the way: Alabama is the standard. There’s no confusing that. They have more talent, and they have a bigger legacy. LANK — Let a Naysayer Know — has been the mantra driving a Crimson Tide squad that felt under appreciated season long.
But let’s get one other thing out of the way: this is it for Michigan, for a long time. It’s do or die time. The Wolverines have been handled and embarrassed for the last two years. Now, they’re on the precipice of the highest heights, or the lowest lows. Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy are, likely, gone after this season — for reasons already well established. The offense will be losing a plethora of key pieces on the line, at receiver and in the backfield. The moment is now, and this is the chance.
If Michigan’s defensive line can get enough pressure, look for an uncomfortable Jalen Milroe to underperform for the Crimson Tide offense. Meanwhile, if McCarthy can play at his best, and eliminate the unforced errors that hindered his play a year ago today, the Wolverines can come out on top. It won’t be pretty, but Michigan must be ready to leave everything out on the field.
Final Score: Michigan 27 – Alabama 23
All week, the mood in California has been that Michigan might be the higher seed, but this is Alabama we’re talking about, and Alabama knows how to get the job done in January. Now I’m often a contrarian — I don’t give teams any more credit than they deserve and I’ve probably written a lot of takes that piss you off. That’s not going to change this game, because I’m following the majority of folks in saying that the Crimson Tide are going to beat the Wolverines.
I chalk up an Alabama win to this: Michigan is built so that its defense locks games down and buys enough time for an often frustrating offense to get going. Yet against an elite quarterback like Jalen Milroe who can move well and air the ball out on the run, alongside a wider pool of talent on both sides of the ball, I think the Wolverines have met their match. Alabama itself has one of the most talented secondaries in the game, and I believe it is going to make offense harder to come by than any team Michigan has faced this season. The math doesn’t add up close enough for the Wolverines to get the win here. Give me the Tide.
Final Score: Michigan 21 – Alabama 30
All throughout the year, when Alabama would appear in our pick ‘ems, I’d take the Crimson Tide against whatever massive spread they were facing — simply because they’re ‘bama. And more often than not, Alabama let me down. It’d win, but it’d feel tighter than it should’ve been. It sputtered against South Florida, looked lackluster vs. A&M, and scraped out an improbable win against Auburn. But by the time I finally gave up on the Tide, they beat Georgia, won the SEC, and punched their ticket to the CFP.
So here’s what I’ll say about the Rose Bowl. You should never, ever count Nick Saban out. In conversations this week, the Crimson Tide have shown no reverence for Michigan. They simply don’t care that they’re playing the No. 1 seed. The Wolverines conversely, seem to be very aware that it’s Alabama they’re facing, and they’re aware that that means something. Whether it’s true or not, they act like they know they’re the better team. And I think that’s confidence, or ego (whatever you want to call it), that the Wolverines don’t have.
With that being said, I think this will be a much slower game than most expect. I expect Alabama to lock down Michigan’s passing offense with its elite corners, but to struggle with Corum. I think the Tide’s rushing offense will also be mostly contained by the Wolverines defense, but I expect that once or twice, Michigan’s corners get cooked, and I believe that that will be enough for the Tide to win a tight Rose Bowl.
Final Score: Michigan 17 – Alabama 20
I’m going to keep doing these blurbs the same way I always have been, without really getting into the specifics of why I’m picking what I’m picking because I have limited time to get this in as a procrastinator and because I don’t have any reasoning behind these picks I just pick off vibes as usual.
For real, we’ve been in Los Angeles covering press conferences all week, and there are plenty of ways to really get informed. You want data? Well we collabed with the web team to explore the two teams’ numbers. You want coverage? We have tons of it from this week. But if you want a prediction based on just how I’m feeling about this game, well here you go. Alabama is Alabama, but I think Michigan just goes ahead and gets it done this year for once before going back to years of postseason struggles and such. The Wolverines made it this far, and I think they get a step closer to finishing the job at the Rose Bowl.
Final Score: Michigan 33 – Alabama 31
