Odds are more indicative of the betting market than they are the quality of the NBA’s teams, but they at least offer hints on that second front. And right now, the Los Angeles Lakers have the fifth-shortest odds to win it all in FanDuel’s SportsBook.
Add that to their second-half surge last season, a conference finals appearance and a solid offseason in which they added several potential role players, and it’s safe to say L.A. is at least a second-tier contender.
However, there’s a glass-half-empty view of the Lakers’ 2023-24 campaign too. LeBron James turns 39 in December. He’s the oldest player currently in the league. Anthony Davis has a robust injury history. D’Angelo Russell was played off the floor in the aforementioned conference finals, and L.A. was swept in that series.
The Lakers can just sort of settle in, rest on the positives listed above and play this season safe. Or, they can make the five decisions below to try to crack that top tier of contenders.
Start Rui Hachimura at the 4 (and Anthony Davis as the 5)
Rui Hachimura only started nine of his 33 regular-season appearances for the Lakers in 2022-23 (he also had one playoff start). Generally speaking, it looks like coach Darvin Ham and the organization wants to give Davis as many minutes as possible playing alongside a more bruising big.
Jarred Vanderbilt weighs less than Hachimura, but he plays more like an old-school big, so he started 24 of his 26 Lakers games. And this summer, L.A. signed Jaxson Hayes and Christian Wood, presumably pushing AD into more minutes at the 4.
But who says Hachimura can’t check that box too?
The Lakers famously deployed him to defend Nikola Jokić in the conference finals, and though he didn’t really slow him down over the course of the series, no one would have. The point is that Hachimura was willing and at least had brief stretches when it looked like Jokić was slightly less comfortable against him.
Against certain matchups, L.A. could appease Davis and his desire to play the 4 by putting Hachimura on the bigger matchup in the opposing frontcourt and letting AD roam as a shot-blocker.
Offensively, there’s a lot less explaining to do. Hachimura is more dangerous than Vanderbilt (or Hayes or Wood, for that matter) at attacking closeouts. He has an intriguing post-up game. And since the start of the 2021-22 season, he’s hit 38.8 percent of his three-point attempts (when you include the playoffs).
The spacing would be better with Hachimura than it would with Hayes or Vanderbilt. The defense would be more versatile with Hachimura than it would with Wood. It’s bigger with Hachimura than it would be with Taurean Prince.
It seems fairly clear that the Lakers’ highest-upside combo at the 4 and the 5 is Hachimura and Davis. They shouldn’t waste any time getting to it.
Bench D’Angelo Russell
It’s probably fine to start D’Angelo Russell in the regular season and play him 30-plus minutes per game.
Over the last three years, he’s averaged 6.4 assists and 2.8 threes, while hitting 37.2 percent of his threes. He typically operates out of the pick-and-roll with patience and poise. And his teams’ offenses have generally been better with him on the floor since 2019-20.
But he was played into a minimal role against Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs. And the Western Conference is loaded with dynamic scoring guards who can similarly exploit his bad (ranging to nonexistent) defense.
Moving Austin Reaves to the 1 may not be a perfect solution. He was similarly targeted by opposing nations at the FIBA World Cup. But he is a little bigger than Russell, and having one defensive liability in the backcourt is better than having two.
L.A. with Reaves and Davis as bookends around three switchable defenders like Prince, LeBron and Hachimura has more potential than a presumed starting five with Russell, Reaves, LeBron, Davis and [insert preferred fifth starter here].
Rest LeBron James
The NBA’s new “player participation policy” will make it a little trickier for teams to rest star players, but LeBron James’ age and career total for minutes make him a possible exception to the new rules.
Sitting part of a back-to-back now requires pre-approval from the league for James and the Lakers, but they should be applying for as many of those as they can (L.A. has 15 back-to-backs this season).
As mentioned, James turns 39 this season. He’s played 65,747 regular and postseason minutes (and that doesn’t count all the international stages he’s played on). During his half-decade with the Lakers, he’s averaged 55.6 appearances per season.
His production and playoff performance say he is still one of the absolute best basketball players in the world, but the numbers above say he may finally be nearing the end of his career.
Even with the league clearly trying to cut back on players resting and the Western Conference figuring to be a gauntlet again, L.A. needs to preserve James.
If this team is going to have a chance to avenge last postseason’s sweep by Denver, he has to be in peak shape in May (and hopefully, June).
Play Max Christie
As stated at the outset, the Lakers had a solid offseason. On paper, the depth looks solid, with nine to 10 rotation players and the ability to play big or small.
But most of the new reserves (including Prince, Wood, Gabe Vincent, Hayes and Cam Reddish) were all below-average players in 2022-23, according to Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices).
And based on other numbers used by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, L.A. is projected to finish eighth in the West with a record around .500.
All that is to say there could still be a chance for a young player like Max Christie to break into the rotation. Honestly, given what we’ve already seen from Reddish (who’s hit 39.9 percent of his shots from the field and 32.2 percent of his threes during a four-year career), Christie should have the inside track on whatever minutes might have been available there.
The 20-year-old is a 6’6″ wing with a 6’9″ wingspan, good shooting mechanics and stout on-ball defense. He was 26-of-62 (41.9 percent) from three as a rookie.
Christie has the potential to be a legitimate helper as early as this season.
Trade for a Third Star?
That question mark is there for a reason. The Lakers won a title in 2020 with the “two stars and depth” model. And that’s essentially what’s in place now.
Plus, Reaves could well be (or play like) a star as early as this season. After eventually locking down his starting spot by mid-March, he went on to average 16.9 points (on just 12.1 attempts) and 4.6 assists in a playoff run that ended in the conference finals.
L.A. could wind up with a big three organically, thanks to the 25-year-old.
But the new contracts of Russell and Hachimura seem almost tailor-made to be aggregated in a trade for a big-name player. Those two and a little draft capital could be enough to pry a new No. 3 from another team.
Fortunately, the Lakers’ front office has done well enough to give itself some time before making a decision like that.
