Alabama vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Picks – CFP Semifinal Rose Bowl
This matchup features two of the most storied programs in college football history, with Alabama seeking its 7th national title under coach Nick Saban, while Michigan looks to capture its first championship since 1997.
Let’s get into our Alabama vs. Michigan prediction, as we analyze the odds and determine how the game will play out.
Alabama vs Michigan Odds – Rose Bowl CFP Semifinal
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama +1.5 (-110) +100 Over 45.5 (-110)
Michigan -1.5 (-110) -120 Under 45.5 (-110)
In the Alabama vs Michigan odds, the Wolverines are 1.5-point favorites against the spread and -120 on the moneyline. UM’s implied win probability is 54.55%. The over/under is offered at 45.5 points.
There has been early line movement towards the Crimson Tide after the initial Rose Bowl odds priced the Wolverines as heavier 2.5-point favorites. The total has also dropped half a point. Michigan is currently favored in the National Championship odds.
Kickoff for the Rose Bowl CFP Semifinal is at 5:00 PM ET on January 1, 2023, at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Odds as of December 7, 2023, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on Alabama vs Michigan.
Alabama Betting Analysis
Alabama enters the playoff after capturing another SEC championship. The Crimson Tide are led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, who has thrown for over 2,700 yards and 23 touchdowns after taking over the starting role early in the season.
Running back Jase McClellan paces the ground attack with over 800 rushing yards and six scores; however, he sat out of the SEC Championship after tweaking an early-season foot injury. The latest McClellan injury update is that the senior RB is probable for the Rose Bowl.
Wide receiver Jermaine Burton is Milroe’s top receiving target with eight touchdowns among his 35 catches. Sophomore Isaiah Bond, meanwhile, has emerged as a key receiver down the stretch, racking up back-to-back games of 70-plus yards. He hauled in Milroe’s Hail Mary pass in the fourth quarter against Auburn.
Defensively, Alabama allows just 18.4 points per game, ranking 17th nationally. Safety Caleb Downs leads the team with 99 tackles and two interceptions, while edge rusher Dallas Turner has nine sacks. The Crimson Tide played a challenging schedule and have proven they can compete with any team, with close wins over Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU.
Alabama’s strengths lie in their explosiveness on offense and smothering defense. Milroe and the passing game are capable of striking quickly, while McClellan can help control possession. Defensively, Alabama generates pressure (29 sacks on the year) and forces turnovers (13 interceptions), stymying opposing offenses.
Michigan Betting Analysis
Michigan enters with a perfect 13-0 record after dominating Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy directs the offense, passing for over 2,400 yards while throwing just three interceptions.
Running back Blake Corum powers the ground attack with 1,028 rush yards and 24 touchdowns, while Donovan Edwards (382 yds) is a solid secondary option. Top receivers include Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson, while tight end Colson Loveland is also a top target with 40 catches for 572 yards.
Before breaking his leg, Michigan guard Zak Zinter might have been the best offensive lineman in the country. The Wolverines’ offensive line, which has won the Joe Moore Award two years running, will need to overcome this tough loss facing the Tide’s elite defensive front.
The Wolverine defense ranks 2nd nationally, giving up just 87 rushing yards and 152 passing yards per game on average. Linebacker Junior Colson has made 79 tackles to lead the unit. Michigan has held 10 of 13 opponents under 300 total yards of offense this season.
Michigan’s strengths are their physical run game and suffocating defense. The Wolverines will look to control time of possession with Corum and grind down opponents. Defensively, they have playmakers at all three levels capable of stopping both the run and pass.
This game is essentially a toss-up, with Alabama just a 1.5-point underdog. The Crimson Tide are 5-3 against the spread (ATS) this season while Michigan is 7-6 ATS. The total has gone over in 5 of Alabama’s games and 6 of Michigan’s games.
Alabama boasts a high-scoring offense, averaging over 34 points per game. However, Michigan’s defense is the best they have faced and will be the toughest test for Milroe and company. If Alabama can break some big plays and force turnovers on defense, they could pull off the upset.
Michigan’s formula relies on a methodical offense and lights-out defense. With Corum and Edwards in the backfield, the Wolverines should be able to control the ball and tempo. Forcing Milroe into mistakes will be key, as Michigan’s defense matches up well and should be able to contain Alabama’s playmakers.
Overall, this game will likely come down to quarterback play and which defense makes more stops. The oddsmakers see it as an extremely close game that could come down to the final possession.
For our Alabama vs Michigan prediction, it’s really hard to bet against Nick Saban when he has time to prepare. Saban’s Crimson Tide have won six straight CFP semifinal games and are catching fire at the right time entering the Rose Bowl. We’re backing the Tide ATS in what should be a low-scoring barn burner in Pasadena.
