On Tuesday, the Denver Broncos leadership triumvirate held court at team headquarters for its end-of-season press conference. Broncos fans got to hear from CEO Greg Penner, GM George Paton, and head coach Sean Payton.
All three hosted their respective pressers alone, unlike some of the past front-office iterations that would see the GM and head coach, at least, answering questions together. Although all three shot-callers are expert communicators and very savvy in what information they choose to reveal, we did learn quite a lot about the current state of the Broncos and what the future may hold.
Let’s get to my key takeaways from the Broncos end-of-season pressers.
Paton Avoids Going on Record About Wilson Allegation
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In multiple occasions, Paton was asked point blank to address the veracity of Russell Wilson’s allegation that the Broncos threatened to bench him if he didn’t remove the injury guarantees from his contract. In each case, Paton responded by spinning, and adamantly claiming the Broncos handled the contractual request ethically, while emphasizing that Payton was never part of those negotiations.
“During the bye week, I did reach out to Russ’ agent in good faith and in a creative attempt to adjust his contract,” Paton said. “We couldn’t get a deal done, and we moved on with our season. It didn’t come up again. Fast forward to Week 17, and Sean makes a change at the quarterback position. This was a football decision made by Sean in what he thought was in the best interest of team. This was completely independent of any conversations I had with the agent. Again, it was a football decision made by Sean. [Regarding] negotiations, I’ll keep the specifics private out of respect for everyone involved. Negotiations are hard. You have difficult conversations and tough conversations. You can characterize a negotiation anyway you want. We always try to handle ourselves professionally and in the best interest of the Broncos. This was no different.”
When asked why Wilson got the impression that Paton was serving him up an ultimatum, the GM replied, “That’s a good question,” implying that he’s curious as to how the QB’s camp could come to that conclusion, too.
“We made a good faith attempt to adjust his contract,” Paton said. “We handled ourselves professionally, and I’ll leave it at that.”
There is evidence to support Wilson’s claim of being threatened, including the NFLPA’s letter to the Broncos which alleged Paton did present an ultimatum, and requested that the team get all of its ducks in a row from a record-keeping perspective for an expected mediation/litigation. However, all the letter proves is that the NFLPA believes Wilson’s side of the story, not necessarily that it’s the truth.
The players’ union is always going to take the player’s side and advocate on his behalf. Meanwhile, there’s circumstantial evidence to support the Broncos’ denial of the threat, which comes in the form of seven games transpiring between the alleged threat and Wilson’s benching, well after the negotiations had died off, and the team had been eliminated from playoff contention.
Perhaps we’ll learn more about each side’s claim if/when this does get litigated. After all, the Broncos are poised to eat an NFL record in dead money on the salary cap if Wilson is released.
The Walton-Penner ownership group will have 85 million reasons, just in 2024 alone, to battle the issue down to the bitter end. If it comes to that.
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The ‘Door is Open’ for a Russ Return
Both Paton and Payton said that a final decision on Wilson’s future with the team hasn’t been made. The team brass will take a little time off with the season ending, and reconvene in two weeks to start hashing out the roster and its big financial decisions.
“The door remains open with ‘Russ,’ Paton said. “I’ve had good conversations with Russ, and Sean has had good conversations. The door is open. We’ll get through the process, and we’ll visit with the coaching staff and scouting staff. We’ll visit with Russ and his people, and we’ll go from there.”
Make no bones about it, though; the door is only barely cracked open and will be contingent on Wilson’s willingness to renegotiate certain aspects of his contract, as evidence by one of Penner’s remarks.
“The financial part of it is a significant component, in terms of how this works out in the future, but that’s not what will drive the decision,” Penner said. “The decision will be driven by what’s in the best interest of this football team winning games.”
If Wilson was sincere in his declaration two weeks ago after he was benched that he wants to remain in Denver, then perhaps he’ll be open to tweaking his contract. That’s assuming, however, that the indignity of being benched didn’t completely sour his relationship with the Broncos brain trust.
Odds are, from Wilson’s point of view, there’s too much water under that bridge and whether they like it or not, the Broncos are legally obligated to pay him the guaranteed portions of his contract.
Don’t Expect Activity in First Wave of Free Agency
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Even if everything were hunky dory with the Wilson situation, the Broncos would still be entering the 2024 offseason with north of $20 million over the salary cap. Some tough personnel decisions await, including and beyond Wilson.
If Wilson is cut, the Broncos will incur a dead-money cap hit of $85 million in 2024 alone, which is more than four-times the single-season NFL record. It will significantly clip this team’s wings when it comes to personnel, forcing the Broncos to go cheap and young.
“This would be extreme,” Paton said of the possible $85M in dead money. “We’ve prepared for any scenario with [V.P. of Football Administration] Rich Hurtado, who runs our [salary] cap. We’ll have flexibility either way to do what we need to do. We won’t be in on the first wave of free agency like we were last year. You can’t do that every year. We’ll be very strategic and very specific on what positions and what players we try to sign.”
That brings us to the next takeaway.
Paton Teases Trades to Acquire More Picks
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The Broncos enter 2024 with six selections in the NFL draft, including the No. 12 overall pick. Considering how cap-strapped this team is, Paton has to make the most of each one of those draft picks, and really leave no stone unturned in the college free-agent ranks.
But the savvy GM also emphasized how much the Broncos like stockpiling draft picks, passively teasing potential trades to acquire more.
“Obviously, we have to hit on the draft,” Paton said. “We’re picking high, and we have six picks. We could have more. You know we like picks. We’ll go from there.”
The only way to acquire more draft picks is to make trades, outside of the NFL awarding a team with compensatory selections, which is a formula based on the number of key veterans lost to free agency the year prior who weren’t replaced.
So who could the Broncos look to trade in order to stockpile more picks? No doubt, Wilson will be dangled, but the same albatross of a contract weighing down the Broncos’ salary cap will also smother any interest that might be there on the trade market.
Adding to Wilson’s non-existent trade value is the fact that NFL teams know that the Broncos are backed into a corner and are likely to have no choice but to release the quarterback. So why give up draft picks or players for Wilson, and take on that horrendous contract, when he’s set to be a free agent sooner than later?
Players under contract who could command some interest on the NFL trade block include left tackle Garett Bolles, Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons, wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, and… cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Paton went to great length to convey the Broncos’ plan to stay in the Surtain business for years to come, but of all the players with a modicum of trade value around the NFL, the young corner would command the most in an exchange.
Cornerback is a cornerstone position and the Broncos have a proven commodity. But it would take as much as two first-round picks, based on the rumor mill, to even pique Denver’s interest in dealing Surtain away.
However, such a haul would certainly help in the Broncos’ effort to find a future franchise quarterback in the 2024 draft, and fill roster holes with young talent. In the NFL, it’s never say never. There’s nothing shocking under the sun when it comes to the league.
Payton Dissatisfied With Year 1 Offense
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Payton is widely viewed as one of the NFL’s brightest, most innovative and competent offensive minds of the modern era. The Broncos’ offense was supposed to take quantum leaps forward under Payton.
That didn’t happen. However, Payton did move the needle in Year 1. Denver finished dead-last in 2022 in scoring, but under Payton, improved to No. 19 (21.0 ppg).
Paradoxically, the Broncos achieved 500 total yards fewer in 2023 than they did under Nathaniel Hackett the year prior. A big part of Payton’s Year-1 struggles was the lackluster play under center, even though Wilson showed massive improvement in 2023, as evidenced by his 26-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
