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Did the Reds do well enough in their tear-down trades? Judging their deals in hindsight
Seattle Mariners' Eugenio Suarez, left, celebrates with teammate Jesse Winker (27) after they scored on a two-run home run by Suarez during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022, in New York. The Mariners won 8-6. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
By C. Trent Rosecrans
Oct 24, 2022
CINCINNATI — Even before the start of the Reds’ 2022 season, the story of this campaign was less about the players on the field, and more about those who were no longer wearing Reds uniforms.
The team’s second rebuild in less than a decade began almost as soon as the 2021 season ended. The tear-down continued after the lockout and then climaxed at the trade deadline.
The season ended with a club-record 66 players appearing in that Cincinnati uniform, a mere 24 of whom were on the 2021 roster. Just 11 had appeared in a game for the Reds in both 2020 and 2022.
How many of those 66 will play in 2023? That’s an interesting question, but the moves showed that that query isn’t terribly relevant. The more important question is this: who will be on the team in 2024? It’s a reflection of the sad state of the franchise that the team is expected to punt on 2023 before the 2022 World Series champ is crowned, but alas, that’s the franchise at this moment under the Castellini ownership. So with that understanding, looking two years out is the way to understand the moves of Cincinnati’s front office this past season, and to judge whether they achieved their aims.
A year ago, Krall was charged with two goals:
• Reduce payroll
• Replenish the farm system
Those two were undeniably accomplished.
• According to Sportrac.com, the Reds’ 2022 payroll was $127,448,057. It was $146,350,747 in 2021. Earlier this month, Krall said he hadn’t gotten the budget for the 2023 season yet.
• MLB.com moved the Reds’ 15th to fourth in its rankings of minor-league system from the start of the 2022 season to the end of the season. That ranking comes even with the graduation of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft.
“I’m very excited about the players we brought in and the players that we have in our farm system that are moving forward,” Krall said earlier this month. “With that said, a lot of those guys are not here right now. They’re still developing. They still need development time. That’s why they’re down there. I feel very good about the moves we made at those times and how it will help our organization as a whole moving forward and creating sustainability in the next few years.”
With the season over, here’s a look back at how they did in dismantling the squad that made the playoffs in 2020 and finished above .500 but missed the playoffs in 2021.
Nov. 3, 2021: Trade C Tucker Barnhart to Detroit Tigers for 3B Nick Quintana
Tucker Barnhart with the Tigers. (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
The rationale: The Reds had a $7.75-million option on Barnhart for 2022 and the emergence of Tyler Stephenson meant Barnhart would be a backup and that was a lot of money for a backup catcher, especially for a team looking to save money.
The departed: Barnhart seemed like a perfect fit to work with a young pitching staff in Detroit, yet the season didn’t go as either the Tigers or Barnhart would’ve liked. Barnhart played in just 94 games, the fewest in a full season since 2015, his first full season in the big leagues. Barnhart also had the worst offensive season of his career, hitting .221/.287/.267. It was his lowest OPS in a full season by nearly .100 points. Barnhart will be a free agent.
The return: At the time of the trade, Quintana was mostly referred to as “a 23-year-old who hit .196 in A ball.” The former second-round pick had a much better 2022 in his first season with the Reds. Considered perhaps the best defensive third baseman in the system, he also improved offensively. He ended up playing 53 games in Double A and 59 in High A. Overall, he hit .245/.358/.387 with 10 homers.
The verdict: In retrospect, it’s a deal the team would probably do again, saving money and getting a player who contributed at the minor-league level. The Reds, however, spent much of the season searching for catching help. Injuries limited to Stephenson to just 43 starts behind the plate and the other 119 were spread among six different backstops — Aramis Garcia (34), Austin Romine (29), Michael Papierski (34), Chuckie Robinson (25), Mark Koloszvary (6) and Chris Okey (3). Of those, only Robinson is under team control. Romine is a free agent, while Papierski, Koloszvary and Garcia were claimed off of waivers, with the Tigers claiming Papierski and the Orioles claiming both Koloszvary and Garcia. Okey was released during the season. A reunion with Barnhart, a pending free agent, doesn’t seem out of the question.
Nov. 5, 2021: LHP Wade Miley claimed off waivers by Chicago Cubs
Wade Miley on the Cubs. (Gregory Fisher / USA TODAY)
The rationale: The Reds had a $10 million option on Miley with a $1 million buyout. In full penny-pinching mode, the Reds weren’t going to pick up Miley’s option. The Reds tried to trade him, but got no offers, eventually placing him on waivers. Had nobody selected him, they’d have been on the hook for the $1 million.
The departed: There were concerns about Miley’s health when the Reds decided not to pick up his option. Although he made 28 starts in 2021 and was the team’s pitcher of the year, he made just four starts in the shortened 2020 and since 2017 had alternated full seasons in odd-numbered years and shortened seasons in even-number years (kind of the Bret Saberhagen trend for the old school watchers out there). That trend continued in 2022, with Miley making just eight starts for the Cubs. He pitched well when he pitched (2–2, 3.16 ERA), but tallied just 37 innings, or $27,027.03 per inning pitched (or $9,009.01 per out.)
The return: The Reds saved $1 million.
The verdict: Another move that was highly criticized at the time, it looks best for the team’s bottom line in hindsight.
Nov. 17, 2021: OF Nick Castellanos declines qualifying offer
Nick Castellanos with the Phillies. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
The rationale: Castellanos had an opt-out and elected free agency. The Reds offered him the Qualifying Offer of one year and $18.4 million. Castellanos had a pair of opt-outs in the free-agent deal he signed with the Reds before the 2020 season. Castellanos did not choose free agency after a disappointing 2020, but did after being selected to the All-Star team and winning the Silver Slugger in 2021.
The departed: Castellanos signed a 5-year, $100-million deal with the Phillies. Castellanos saw precipitous dips in his offensive output in the regular season, putting up the lowest OPS of his career (.694) in a full season and hitting just 13 home runs after 34 with the Reds in 2021. His home run total was one fewer than he put up in the 60-game 2020 with the Reds, despite playing 76 more games with the Phillies. He did, however, help the Phillies advance past the Braves in the NLDS, going 5 for 16 with 5 RBI in the series.
The return: The Reds took high school third baseman Sal Stewart with the 32nd overall pick in the draft, which was acquired as compensation for losing Castellanos.
The verdict: The Reds had plenty of issues in the outfield and could use a solid starter there, but that said, Castellanos hasn’t lived up to his contract in Philadelphia. If he leads the Phillies to a World Series title, things will look better, but the Reds were never going to pay that much money to Castellanos. The 2022 Reds would’ve been better with Castellanos, but retaining him would have had a catastrophic impact on the future of the organization, considering the restraints placed on the front office with respect to payroll. In the end, it stunk for Reds fans who rallied around Castellanos in his two seasons here, but it was the correct decision for all involved (well, maybe not the Phillies).
Nov. 24, 2021: LHP Cionel Pérez claimed off waivers by Baltimore Orioles
The rationale: The Reds tried to sneak Pérez through waivers to clear space on the 40-man roster to protect players for a Rule 5 Draft that never happened. It didn’t work, as the Orioles pounced on Pérez.
The departed: Pérez became the pitcher that both the Astros and Reds thought he had the potential to be before giving up on him. With the Orioles, Pérez turned into a top-flight reliever, putting up a 7-1 record with a 1.40 ERA in 66 appearances for Baltimore.
The return: None.
The verdict: Of all the hand-wringing over the Reds’ moves before the 2022 season, this is the one that looks the worst in retrospect, even if it went unnoticed at the time.
March 13, 2022: Reds trade RHP Sonny Gray and RHP Francis Peguero to Minnesota Twins for RHP Chase Petty
Sonny Gray with the Twins. (AP Photo / Steve Helber)
The rationale: Gray resurrected his career with the Reds and even signed a team-friendly extension at the time of his trade from the Yankees in part because he genuinely wanted to be in Cincinnati. Gray performed well with the Reds and was under team control for two more seasons at more than $23 million including the club option for 2023. The Reds had waited too long to trade assets from the franchise’s previous playoff teams, and — as was a trend with their moves at the deadline — that was a mistake the front office didn’t want to repeat.
The departed: Gray battled injuries, but still delivered for the Twins, going 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts. Peguero is currently in the Arizona Fall League. He was 3-0 with a 5.30 ERA in 17 games in relief for the Twins’ Double-A team in Tulsa, Okla.
The return: Petty, the Twins’ first-round pick in 2021, doesn’t turn 20 until April. He reached High-A Dayton, going 1-2 with a 4.40 ERA in seven starts the
