The race for the AFC playoff bye is heating up: The challengers, remaining schedules and biggest obstacles
There’s a fun race developing for some of the most valuable real estate in sports. Since the NFL moved to a 14-team playoff field and limited the first-round bye to the top seed in each conference during the 2020 season, landing that bye has been incredibly valuable for teams with Super Bowl aspirations. In a small sample of six teams, four 1-seeds have advanced to the championship game. That group includes both top seeds a year ago, with the Chiefs and Eagles both enjoying a week off before storming into Arizona for a classic Super Bowl.
While those same Eagles hold a two-game lead for the top spot in the NFC, the No. 1 spot in the AFC remains up for grabs. Three different teams held the 1-seed in the AFC at one point or another Sunday. The Jaguars claimed it after the early games with their narrow win over the Texans. A comeback victory by the Chiefs over the Raiders put Patrick Mahomes & Co. in front after the afternoon games. When the Ravens claimed the night game with a victory over the Chargers, John Harbaugh’s team ensured it will hit its upcoming bye atop the conference.
Throw in the Dolphins, who blew out the Jets in the NFL’s Black Friday debut, and there are four three-loss teams in the conference. With all due respect to the Browns, Steelers and everyone else in the conference, it’s extremely likely the top seed in the AFC will come from one of those three-loss teams riding high atop their respective divisions.
Let’s break down that race with six weeks to go. What happened to these teams in Week 12? What’s going on with them this season? And what does their path to the top seed in the AFC look like over the next month and a half? I’ll also include the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) odds for each team to get the 1-seed. We’ll start with the team with the best chance to land it:
Jump to a team:
Chiefs | Dolphins
Jaguars | Ravens
1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
Week 12 result: Beat Raiders 31-17
Chances of being the 1-seed, per FPI: 42.2%
As is often the case for the Chiefs, the Raiders served as an opportunity to get right after a difficult loss. During Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City, Kansas City has gone 18-3 against its division rivals, including a 6-1 record in games against the Raiders after a defeat. Sunday’s win was basically a typical matchup between these two teams, as the Chiefs have won the average contest between these two games by a score of 33-19. It wasn’t a breeze — Las Vegas went up 14-0 early in the second quarter — but the Chiefs scored touchdowns on four of their next five possessions to take control.
I talked earlier this season about the Chiefs’ defense and how it has thrived. While the Eagles gave Kansas City trouble last week in what ended up as a narrow Philly victory, the defense continues to be the cornerstone. The Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed, ensconced between the 49ers in fourth and the Jets in sixth. They rank fourth in points allowed per drive. Josh Jacobs might have gotten them for a long touchdown run Sunday, but the Chiefs are very, very good on defense.
My one concern with the Chiefs on paper might have been their pass rush, but they rank third in sack rate. Chris Jones naturally leads the way and was the best player on the field in that Eagles game, but he’s getting more help. Second-year edge rusher George Karlaftis actually leads the team with eight sacks and 26 initial pressures, although Jones missed the first game of the season. Budding star cornerback Trent McDuffie has rushed the passer only 44 times, but he has been a difference-maker with those blitzes, producing two sacks and eight pressures. He has forced five fumbles, although four of those have been after catches.
Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been more aggressive in allowing corner L’Jarius Sneed to shadow top receivers. The results have been impressive. Sneed was the primary defender holding A.J. Brown to one catch for 8 yards in the Eagles game, and while Davante Adams gave Sneed trouble early Sunday, the wideout finished with five catches for 73 yards. No No. 1 receiver has managed 50 yards and a touchdown against Kansas City since Amon-Ra St. Brown got there in the opener.
Strangely, the Chiefs have found their offense to be lacking in key moments. Drops from wide receivers have been the most pressing problem; a Kadarius Toney drop led to a game-changing pick-six in the Week 1 loss to the Lions, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a would-be touchdown pass late in the defeat against Philadelphia.
What looked like a weakness for the Chiefs heading into the season has been even worse in reality. Toney has been unable to stay healthy or make consistent plays. For all the hype about how he looked during the offseason, Skyy Moore hasn’t been able to draw targets and hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards in a game since September. Rookie second-round pick Rashee Rice has flashed and just had his first 100-yard game Sunday, but the Chiefs weren’t anticipating that Rice and former Bucs backup Justin Watson would be leading the wideouts in routes on a weekly basis.
Can the Chiefs win a Super Bowl with this sort of receiving corps? Yes. We saw them do it last season. That team had JuJu Smith-Schuster instead of Rice, but given how the wideout-needy Patriots have marginalized Smith-Schuster this season, I doubt losing him in free agency has sunk Kansas City at the position.
The 2022 Chiefs had tight end Travis Kelce put up a dominant season, producing 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. While he has been all over the headlines this season, it hasn’t necessarily been because of his play. As Kelce has struggled for consistency — and missed the Week 1 loss to the Lions with a knee injury — has he taken a step backward? It didn’t appear he had been as impactful as the player who took over games last season.
A closer look at the data suggests Kelce hasn’t dropped off. In 2022, the future Hall of Famer averaged 2.44 yards per route run, which ranked 11th in the league among all receivers. In 2023? After a solid Week 12, he’s actually up to 2.52 yards per route run, which is … 14th among all receivers. He was targeted on 28.5% of his routes last season and is actually seeing the ball more often this season, with a target rate just north of 30%. On a snap-by-snap basis, he is better than the guy we saw a year ago.
The difference? He’s not playing as many snaps. Reid has steadily brought down Kelce’s snap share. After playing a career-high 95% of the snaps during Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, his share of the workload has dropped in each of the ensuing seasons. He was at 93% in 2019, 86% in 2020, 82% in 2021, and 80% in 2022. (Those numbers don’t include the games he missed because of COVID or sat out while resting.)
This season, leaving aside the Week 1 game, Kelce had played only about 71% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs before the Eagles game. Unsurprisingly, in a close contest against a great opponent, Reid upped his snap share for that game to 94%, with Kelce playing nearly 20 more snaps than he had in any other game. On Sunday, he was back down to 76% of the offensive snaps. He’s now at 74% for the entire season and running about 29 routes per game, down from just over 32 routes per contest a year ago.
The Philadelphia game should tell us what we need to know. Reid is going to up Kelce’s snap rate when the games matter most, which should be no surprise. The good news for Chiefs fans — and their best case for finishing yet again as the top seed in the AFC — is there might not be many games taxing Kelce until the postseason.
What’s next: The Chiefs have the easiest schedule remaining of these four contenders for the top spot in the AFC. A December and January run-in that might have looked tricky on paper over the summer looks much easier in reality, as they don’t have a single remaining contest against a team with a winning record.
The Bills have dropped to .500, while the Chargers are three games below. The rematch of what has become one of the league’s best rivalries will be muted with Jake Browning filling in for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, while the Chiefs also host the aforementioned Raiders and travel to play a flailing Patriots team. It’s hardly out of the question that Kansas City runs the table and finishes 14-3.
2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
Week 12 result: Beat Chargers 20-10
Chances of being the 1-seed, per FPI: 22.5%
Winning is rarely a pretty endeavor for the Ravens, but pretty isn’t necessary when they’re hitting the bye after Thanksgiving with the top seed in the AFC. Sunday was a slog on offense, as the Chargers held Baltimore to 13 points for most of the night before a late Zay Flowers touchdown broke things open. The Ravens won’t care about their streak of five consecutive games with 30 points or more ending in Los Angeles.
In a season in which even the 10-1 Eagles have looked vulnerable for long stretches of games, I don’t think any team has been more cumulatively dominant on both sides of the football than Baltimore. It has led inside the final two minutes in each of its three losses, games in which it felt like it beat itself as opposed to getting outplayed by the opposing team. Drops cost them an overtime loss to the Colts, while sloppy play and five turnovers led to losses to the Steelers and the Browns.
At their best, has any team been more dominant? Early-season wins by multiple scores over the Texans and Browns look more impressive with hindsight, given how these teams have played over the remainder of the year. The Ravens have four wins by at least two touchdowns over teams with
