The Leeds United advantage that could edge them over Ipswich Town and Leicester City for automatic promotion

Leeds United’s defensive stats have been particularly strong this season compared to Leicester City and, in particular, Ipswich Town.
Leeds United’s defensive trio of Ampadu, Rodon, and Struijk have been crucial to their success, with a record of just one loss in 14 games and 12 goals conceded.
Leeds have the best expected goals against (xGA) in the league, showing their defensive solidity and giving freedom to their attacking players.
If Leeds can maintain their defensive structure and continue scoring goals, they have a strong chance of closing the gap in the promotion race.
The battle for promotion from the Championship table is hotting up, but Leeds United may have one particular edge over their automatic promotion rivals Leicester City and Ipswich Town.
The Whites weren’t afraid to bring in some top-quality players during the summer transfer window, with Ethan Ampadu, Joel Piroe, and Glen Kamara arriving at Elland Road for sizeable fees. Joe Rodon also helped to make Daniel Farke’s side more assured at the back.
The unit in front of goalkeeper Illan Meslier has chopped and changed often in the full-back positions, but in central areas things have been far more settled and that has been apparent with regards to the data as well.
Farke has settled on Rodon, Ampadu, Kamara, and stand-in captain Pascal Struijk to form the spine of his side in the middle of the pitch. All of the above are capable ball-players, but they also provide a platform for the attacking players to express themselves, knowing they have a solid base behind them.
In particular, when the defensive axis of Ampadu, Rodon, and Struijk have all started together, Leeds have won ten, drawn three, and lost just once in 14 games so far. Not only that, but Leeds have conceded just 12 times in those games.
They have kept six clean sheets in the process, and only conceded more than once on three occasions in that run of fixtures, including three times to second-place Ipswich in their only home defeat all season so far.
When those three play, the opposition’s attacking threats are nullified to a large extent. They form part of Leeds’ strong ‘rest defence’ – meaning the remaining players who often sit back when Leeds attack.
This was particularly exemplified in the recent win over Blackburn, where the game was somewhat chaotic and the ball was constantly turned over in the middle of the pitch, but Leeds were rarely troubled defensively in spite of Blackburn’s good territory, with Rodon and Struijk extremely dominant at the heart of Leeds’ defence.
They have formed a formidable partnership and complement each other well, with Struijk the front-footed sweeper who can engage play a bit higher, and Rodon the aggressive and more dominant centre-back aerially who can clean up slightly behind the Dutchman.
According to FBref, Leeds have the best xGA (expected goals against) in the league, just above Leicester and well clear of Ipswich. It’s no surprise when their three most crucial defensive players all start together, and that figure should remain low for the remainder of the season, if Leeds can keep all of them fit.
They combine athleticism, speed, strength, and leadership qualities to make Farke’s spine particularly strong in front of Meslier. It also gives more freedom to their attacking players in transition, who know that behind them is a dependable unit.
Leicester have that solidity to a large extent themselves, but have overperformed their xGA of 18.6 quite considerably, having conceded just 12 goals so far. Leeds, meanwhile, have conceded 20 from 18.4 xG and are much closer to their expected value.
The stats don’t always level out, but the Whites have the structure at the back to give them the best chance over their rivals over the course of what is left of the season. If they can keep the goals flowing in attack and continue conceding a low number of chances and scorelines to nil or one in every game, then they’ll be closing that gap up sooner rather than later.